Plantation players have increasingly moved downstream to diversify their revenue stream and hedge their earnings against volatility in crude palm oil (CPO) prices.
IOI Corp Bhd, for instance, saw the need to move up the value chain by moving downstream. Today, it is one of the largest integrated palm oil players in the world. Even smaller players such as IJM Plantations Bhd is eyeing a footprint in the downstream industry in India, one of the largest consumers of palm oil, via the acquisition of a 51% stake in Godrej Gokarna Oil Palm Ltd for RM9.37 million in 2008.
But, with the downstream business growing, the upstream business has never looked more lucrative. With downstream activity picking up, there is a need for bigger amounts of raw materials. This, coupled with the expected increase in demand for edible oils, would generally boost demand for CPO.
Palm oil producers have been snooping around for suitable land acquisitions to expand their landbanks in order to boost production.
Among them is Sime Darby Bhd, which is keen on expanding its upstream business to cater to the growing demand for palm oil and to supply materials for its own growing downstream operations. The world’s largest listed palm oil company by landbank aims to own and manage one million hectares of plantation land.
According to its FY2009 annual report, the company currently has some 631,762ha under its belt, with 43% of it in Indonesia. Of its total landbank, only 84%, or close to 531,000ha, is planted, giving it room for further capacity expansion in the future. Sime produced about 2.3 million tonnes of CPO in FY2009.
Sime also acquired a 63-year concession in Liberia to develop 220,000ha of land into oil palm and rubber estates in the middle of last year. This concession will add to its production capacity in the coming years following the setting up of a nursery there recently.
Similarly, other planters are aggressively acquiring land to remain in the lucrative upstream business. Kim Loong Resources Bhd, which has a remaining plantable area of 5,000ha, added another 10,471ha to its landbank early this year that will be developed progressively till 2014. Meanwhile, Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Bhd acquired a 30-year sub-lease of 3,371 acres of land in Sabah last year.
However, given every planter’s objective to increase its capacity, plantation land back home is becoming scarce, pushing the players abroad for land acquisition. Indonesia, being the current favourite destination, has seen Malaysian plantation owners flocking in to expand their landbanks there.
IJM Plantations has been among the companies that have been actively acquiring land in Indonesia over the past few years. The company has a total of 29,031ha of plantation land in Malaysia, and some 24,914ha in Indonesia that is still awaiting issuance of lease permits. IJM Plantations has talked of plans to eventually establish some 30,000ha to 40,000ha of oil palm plantation in Indonesia.
In February, Genting Plantations Bhd tied up with Palma Citra Investama Pte Ltd and PT Sawit Mandira to develop 17,500ha of agricultural land into oil palm plantations in Indonesia.
According to a recent report in the Jakarta Globe, the Indonesian government is looking to increase the land acreage for palm oil to 8.1 million hectares this year, from 7.5 million hectares. This would push CPO production to 23.2 million tonnes from the current 18.7 million tonnes, an increase of 24%. It is estimated that the palm oil acreage in Indonesia would expand another 18.7% by 2014, producing about 28.4 million tonnes of CPO by then.
Meanwhile, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) forecast close to a 3% increase in CPO production this year to 18.1 million tonnes. That would mean the combined CPO production from Malaysia and Indonesia this year would increase by about five million tonnes.
Rabobank had earlier noted that trees planted during the early stages of the price rally in 2006 are beginning to come onstream. Nonetheless, it keeps a conservative estimate of a 3.1 million tonne increase for 2010. Analysts say about 40% of the current palm oil plantations in Indonesian are not mature yet and will only filter through in the coming years.
With all the aggressive land acquisition going on at the moment, no one can say for sure how much that would bump up global supply five years down the road. Analysts say supply has been growing at about 4% to 5% every year and it it possible that, in five years time, global production would have gone up by more than 30% in real terms, compared to the present.
With the additional capacity coming on stream in the next few years, the question is whether this could mark a cycle of excess capacity. At the moment, there is no worry of such a scenario as global demand for CPO is growing at a pace that outstrips supply. Rabobank says export availability of alternative vegetable oils is unlikely to increase substantially. This means that while production is forecast to increase, the palm oil market would continue to remain strong.
After all, as one analyst points out, planters understand the strength and trend of demand growth and will develop their land in stages so that growth is staggered and balanced.
This article appeared in Corporate page of The Edge Malaysia.
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